This is a short post to keep you updated on the monetary situation in India… Inflation at 6.5%, CPI at 8%
RBI feels that there is too much liquidity even at this stage and is concerned about the Inflation pressures.. so, they have reacted yesterday by raising CRR [ Fed Reserve Requirement ] and Repo Rate [ Fed Funds Rate ] .. ( Equivalent Us terms have been provided as links for reference.
CRR has been raised to 6.5% [ 2 phases to be in place by April end ] while REPO to 7.75%.
So, get ready for another hike in home loan, auto loan and other loan rates. Also bank deposits will fetch a much better return than investing in many other instruments in the short term. Bank profitability and small and medium size companies will be hurt most due to this squeeze..
This may also be a chance to buy that dream house or plot at a lower price.. will update the situation once the banks announce their decisions on interest rates.
In a surprise move yesterday, ICICI bank has raised its lending rates further, becoming the bank with the highest rate of 13% on Fixed and 11% on floating loans. Though HDFC is lagging behind, it is also expected to move higher by 100bps or a 1% soon. PLR ( Prime Lending Rate ) the reference rate has been left untouched , keeping the existing loans at the same rates as of Feb 6th 2007. Many feel that this move by ICICI is in line with its strategy to slowing down growth in home loan portfolio. Many state owned banks have also raised interest rates for new borrowers and the rates are expected to go further up.
On deposits banks are increasing it further with SBI, ICICI offering upto 9.5% interest as of today. Senior citizens get an additional 0.25% on their deposits generating an annualized yield of 11.75% at 9.75% savings rate.
In other finance developments, Forex reserves of India increased to $190b, creating some more issues for the financeministry. Rupee is being reigned in through various measures by the government but the fact remains that rupee has appreciated against the dollar from 46.9/$ [ when I landed at hyderabad in july] to 43.9/$ [ last week ] and this may continue creating margin pressures for exporters as well as the outsourcing industry.
Disclaimer : I dont claim to be an economist or even some one with formal finance education..
The hype and confusion still continue around the Fab City project of Hyderabad. Everyone was banking on the announcement of semiconductor policy in India which was finally revealed on thursday. Per the new policy, manufacturing plants in SEZS can avail 20% subsidy for semiconductor plants and those outside the SEZ’s can avail 25% subsidy. This subsidy will be in the form of tax concessions, interest subsidy and interest free loans for subsidizing the capital expenditure incurred in setting up the manufacturing units for the first 10 years of its existence.
25% is exactly what SemIndia [ promoter of fabcity ] has been demanding saying that it needs atleast this much to sustain. New York state has recently granted a 28% subsidy to AMD to setup its fab in the state. So, what the Indian government is offering is no more than what a US state would offer. Korea is known to offer 80% of the costs incurred and malaysia is known to offer a double deduction for R&D etc.
In fab business companies operate at a 12% Margin irrespective of the location. About 88% of the cost of a chip fab are static and do not change regardless of the location the plants are in. So, India may serve as the testing, packing destination for a while instead of being a manufacturing site. A recent semiconductor vision summit also quashed some myths about the scale of initial operation. SemIndia’s goals are to acquire fab’s across the world , operate them as-is and then transfer them to India. One component that is guaranteed to come to Hyderabad is a chip design entity that will design chips for DSL Modems [ is that cutting edge anymore ?.. aren’t there tons of these design shops in India already ? ], but the manufacturing will actually take place near Chennai in a 3rd party plant, followed by a semindia branding and sold to BSNL.
Recent and continuous announcements about an ATMP ( Assemble Test Mark Pack ) facility being the first in Fab City doesnt indicate that too much will happen in the near future in fabcity. No doubt, the growth will be slow, but dont be fooled by the hype around the 3 billion investments since it will be a long time before that really flows in.
While I really look forward to Hyderabad becoming a Fab center/Fab city, I do not see a clear roadmap to achieving the same from semindia. SemIndia from my research is not just focussing on Hyderabad, they have plans for other locations too..
I some how missed to notice the news about 1000 employees fired in Hyderabad this week. Looks like companies are finally taking background checks seriously. Due to the serious security lapses leading to data theft, companies in India are actively supporting NSR, [ National Skills Registry ] Initiative. The following quote from Nasscom shows how serious IT/ITES industry is about data security to protect the honest people working in India.
“We will leave no stone unturned to make India the “Fort Knox” of security, positioning ourselves as the gold standard for security as we are today for quality. We hope that NSR will dramatically raise the level of security and protect all the honest people working in this industry”.. Kiran Karnik - Nasscom
Today I received an email from my HR to complete the NSR registration. This has become mandatory for all levels within the organization. I logged into the site and completed the online part, but did not have the time to go to the kiosk setup in our cafeteria. I am supposed to go there with a photograph and also leave my fingerprint so that NSR can continue conducting a background check. The cost of this is borne by my employer and I will be receiving an ID card as well as an ITPIN that will allow any future employer to hire me based on the credentials validated by NSR.
As the year draws to a close, the realtors and agents of Hyderabad have been a nervous wreck. Recent ruckus around assigned lands and land cieling has created some major headaches for the real estate bigwigs. I am not sure if this is going to affect the political and business circles, but a lot of the investors and realtors who hold onto land and sell it for a profit may be affected.
Government passed an amendment to some land act that allows the restoration of land to the original owners or public purpose. 40 Lac acres of land may be affected by this and other land cieling acts. Realtors are fearful that a release of the survey #’s etc., will bring the prices down to bare minimum and are desperately trying to find buyers for their land. Local media sources are reporting that outskirts prices like in ghatkesar, areas beyond shamshabad have fallen by 10-15% per acre in some areas.
IMHO, bargains are here to stay for the next 2 to 3 months and this may be the right time to get in if you are able to squeeze the cash starved developers/realtors. Remember the Buy Low, Sell High that we never seem to execute well.. may be this is the time to practice that.
Please remember that I am only writing what I hear and feel, you should do your homework before you make your move. Its your money.. so, Invest wisely !!!.
Wish you all a happy and prosperous 2007.
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